The College Conundrum

When he looked to the future, Grayson Hart always saw a college degree. He was a good student at a good high school. He wanted to be an actor, or maybe a teacher. Growing up, he believed college was the only route to a good job, stability and a happy life.

The pandemic changed his mind.

A year after high school, Grayson is directing a youth theater program in Jackson, Tennessee. He got into every college he applied to but turned them all down. Cost was a big factor, but a year of remote learning also gave him the time and confidence to forge his own path.

“There were a lot of us with the pandemic, we kind of had a do-it-yourself kind of attitude of like, ‘Oh—I can figure this out,’” he said. “Why do I want to put in all the money to get a piece of paper that really isn’t going to help with what I’m doing right now?”

The decision of whether to attend college has long been complicated for teenagers, and even more after the COVID-19 pandemic. This decision can seem even more complicated for those who know God’s truth and believe Christ’s Return is drawing close. How do you navigate believing “time is short” while also wisely planning for whatever time remains in this age?

What you will do after high school is a monumental decision, one that you need to prayerfully consider while taking counsel from your parents and school guidance counselor.

To start thinking about your future education and employment—or continue to do so if you have already started—it can be helpful to look at the job landscape and current trends affecting other members of Generation Z. Their experiences help illustrate the conundrum associated with deciding whether college is for you, what other options are out there and what pitfalls to avoid.

Grayson is not alone. He is among hundreds of thousands of young people who came of age during the pandemic but did not go to college. Many are attracted to well-paying jobs or careers that do not require a degree, while others have been deterred by high tuition and the prospect of student debt.

Nationwide, undergraduate college enrollment dropped 8 percent from 2019 to 2022, with declines continuing even after returning to in-person classes, according to data from the National Student Clearinghouse. The slide in the college-going rate since 2018 is the steepest on record, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

In dozens of interviews with The Associated Press, educators, researchers and students described a generation jaded by education institutions. Largely left on their own amid remote learning, many took part-time jobs. Some felt they were not learning anything, and the idea of four more years of school, or even two, held little appeal.

College cost is also a major factor, with the nation’s student debt currently at $1.7 trillion.

As a kid, Grayson dreamed of going to Penn State to study musical theater. His family encouraged college, and he went to a private high school where it is an expectation.

But when classes went online, he spent more time pursuing creative outlets. He felt a new sense of independence, and the stress of school faded.

“I was like, ‘OK, what’s this thing that’s not on my back constantly?’” Grayson said. “I can do things that I can enjoy. I can also do things that are important to me. And I kind of relaxed more in life and enjoyed life.”

He started working at a smoothie shop and realized he could earn a steady paycheck without a degree. By the time he graduated, he had left college plans behind.

Of course, Grayson’s path is his own. Maybe you know other recent high school graduates with a similar story. They backed into a path that does not include college and seem to be doing just fine.

Yet the most important thing to consider when planning your future is not to stumble into it. It is crucial to have a plan—regardless of whether that includes attending a university.

Other Options

The trend of Gen Z moving away from college has happened with public as well as private schools. Some counselors and principals were shocked to see graduates flocking to jobs at Amazon warehouses or scratching together income in the gig economy, which includes driving for Uber and providing services on websites such as Fiverr.

The shift has been stark in Jackson, Tennessee, where just four in 10 of the county’s public high school graduates immediately went to college in 2021, down from six in 10 in 2019. That drop is far steeper than the nation overall, which declined from 66 percent to 62 percent, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Jackson’s leaders say young people are taking restaurant and retail jobs that pay more than ever. Some are being recruited by manufacturing companies that have aggressively raised wages to fill shortages.

“Students can’t seem to resist sign-on bonuses and wages that far exceed any that they’ve seen before,” said Vicki Bunch, the head of workforce development for the area’s chamber of commerce.

Across Tennessee, there’s growing concern the slide will only accelerate with the opening of several new manufacturing plants. The biggest is a $5.6 billion Ford plant near Jackson that will produce electric trucks and batteries. It promises to create 5,000 jobs, and its construction is already drawing young workers.

Daniel Moody, 19, was recruited to run plumbing for the plant after graduating from a Memphis high school in 2021. Now earning $24 an hour, he is glad he passed on college.

“If I would have gone to college after school, I would be dead broke,” he said. “The type of money we’re making out here, you’re not going to be making that while you’re trying to go to college.”

America’s college-going rate was generally on the upswing until the pandemic reversed decades of progress. Rates fell even as the nation’s population of high school graduates grew, and despite economic upheaval, which typically drives more people into higher education.

In Tennessee, education officials issued a “call to action” after finding just 53 percent of public high school graduates were enrolling in college in 2021, far below the national average. It was a shock for a state that in 2014 made community college free, leading to a surge in the college-going rate. Now it is at its lowest point since at least 2009.

Searching for answers, education officials crossed the state last year and heard that easy access to jobs, coupled with student debt worries, made college less attractive.

“This generation is different,” said Jamia Stokes, a senior director at SCORE, an education nonprofit. “They’re more pragmatic about the way they work, about the way they spend their time and their money.”

The number of freshmen enrolling at U.S. colleges increased slightly from 2021 to 2022. But that figure, along with total college enrollment, remains far below pre-pandemic levels.

Unsure Future?

Amid the chaos of the pandemic, many students fell through the cracks, said Scott Campbell, executive director of Persist Nashville, a nonprofit that offers college coaching.

Some students fell behind academically and did not feel prepared for college. Others lost access to counselors and teachers who help navigate college applications and the complicated process of applying for federal student aid.

“Students feel like schools have let them down,” Mr. Campbell said.

In Jackson, Mia Woodard recalls sitting in her bedroom and trying to fill out a few online college applications. No one from her school had talked to her about the process, she said. As she scrolled through the forms, she was sure of her Social Security number and little else.

She says she never heard back from the colleges. She wonders whether to blame her shaky Wi-Fi, or if she simply failed to provide the right information.

Mia, who had hoped to be the first in her family to get a college degree, now works at a restaurant and lives with her dad. She is looking for a second job so she can afford to live on her own. Then maybe she’ll pursue her dream of getting a culinary arts degree.

“It’s still kind of 50-50,” she said of her chances.

If there is a bright spot, experts say, it is that more young people are pursuing education programs other than a four-year degree. Some states are seeing growing demand for apprenticeships in the trades, which usually provide certificates and other credentials.

After a dip in 2020, the number of new apprentices in the U.S. has rebounded to near pre-pandemic levels, according to the Department of Labor.

Before the pandemic, Boone Williams was the type of student colleges compete for. He took advanced classes and got A’s. He grew up around agriculture and thought about going to college for animal science.

But when his school outside Nashville sent students home his junior year, he tuned out. Instead of logging on for virtual classes, he worked at local farms, breaking horses or helping with cattle.

“I stopped applying myself once COVID came around,” the 20-year-old said. “I was focusing on making money rather than going to school.”

When a family friend told him about apprenticeships, he jumped at the chance to get paid for hands-on work while mastering a craft.

Today he works for a plumbing company and takes night classes for his trade.

The pay is modest, Boone said, but eventually he expects to earn far more than friends who took quick jobs after high school. He even thinks he is better off than some who went to college—he knows too many who dropped out or took on debt for degrees they never used.

“In the long run, I’m going to be way more set than any of them,” he said.

While this is the opinion of one person, trade occupations are a good option. They can be a solid way to build a career doing something you are interested in.

Back in Jackson, Grayson says he is doing what he loves by contributing to the city’s growing arts community. Still, he wonders what is next. His job pays enough for stability but not a whole lot more. He sometimes finds himself thinking about Broadway, but he does not have a clear plan for the next 10 years.

“I do worry about the future and what that may look like for me,” he said. “But right now I’m trying to remind myself that I am good where I’m at, and we’ll take it one step at a time.”

Grayson is trying to navigate a difficult time. It is a period of economic uncertainty, but also a period of increased education opportunities, as online and free learning programs truly come into their own. Yet for Grayson—and many others like him—the biggest worry may stem from not having a concrete plan.

So, should you attend college? Maybe. Maybe not. But planning for the future is crucial.

Here is the greatest way to know whether you should attend college: You must decide what career you want in your life. Once you figure that out, research whether a college degree is needed to do what you want. If so, then you should plan to attend college. But if you are looking to work in a trade or a different career that does not require a standard college education, that is fine too.

Use every resource available to you as you make this decision. You have programs at school, use them. Discuss this at length with your parents. Counsel with your minister if needed. Pray about it all.

Planning for your adult life will help you more confidently head into the future. It will also allow you to avoid the worries that so many in Gen Z are already facing.

This article contains information from The Associated Press.